Friends, May, come and go, but enemies accumulate.

Elizabeth May is finally going to do something smart for her party and try to win a Green seat in the next federal election. This, I have to say, disappointed me, as the Green party is, in the current electoral system (one which, I should note, I voted against reforming in the recent BC referendum), nothing more than a massive annoyance. I personally don’t really see the Greens as contributing much to the national political landscape, other than increasing the chance of a Tory government by ten to twenty percent.

A number of ridings have been talked about as potential places for the germinating politician, and, given that I hope she loses, I’ll point out where I would hope she runs.

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquadobit Valley

This riding seems winnable, but there isn’t much you can do to pass judgement empirically, since the Greens did not nominate a candidate in the riding, instead choosing to endorse Bill Casey. Seeing as how Casey has run in every riding election since 1988, and won all but one of them, it is very difficult to separate the popularity of the PCs and their successors from the man himself. This is probably a gamble, especially given this riding’s supposed tendency to vote for a home-town MP, and May is basically a parachute candidate. Mind you, she could always run in the by-election and then in the general later, in the event that it doesn’t work out.

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

This is probably one of the best chances that the Greens have for a pickup. Liberal voters have shown themselves to be a rather pragmatic bunch, electing Linda Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona rather than voting for their own candidate in an attempt to beat the Conservative. The typical NDP voter tends to be less cooperative (see – the last federal election). I would not be surprised to see something similar happen here, with Liberals casting their votes for the Greens.

Guelph

I mentioned earlier that Liberals are a pragmatic bunch. I do not, however, think that they would be wiling to sacrifice an incumbent to let May have a seat. Sure, some of them might, but looking at poll numbers, this is looking more an more like a Liberal hold every day, even with significant help from the local papers. The Green candidate was decent in and of himself last time around,so I would expect the bump to be smaller than if May parachuted herself into another of the above ridings. I would think that this would look more like the London by-election in late 2006.

Saanich-Gulf Islands

This riding keeps electing a Conservative due to terminal vote splitting. In every election that Gary Lunn has run in, he has never cracked 45% of the vote. Even in the last election, because 3000 foolishly cast a ballot for NDP candidate Julian West, who had resigned as a candidate, Lunn was again returned to Ottawa. I think the big question here is whether Briony Penn, the former Liberal candidate, runs again. If she does, this former Green member will siphon off support from the Greens based on personal popularity. Island politics seem to have much more to do with personality than with party, so I would not be optimistic.

Of these ridings, the surest route to a loss would be Saanich-Gulf Islands IF Penn runs again, and, if not (based solely on gut feeling) Cumberland-Colchester-Musquidobit Valley.